事後孔明 - Hindsight Bias

已故前蘋果公司總裁Steve Job 說過, "It turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life," (walter isaacson)

Hindsight Bias 是指一個人知道結果後，會誇大原本對事件的推測。Steve Job被踢之後有沒有灰心？我們不知道 （但我們相信會。試想想當你用自己心血建立的公司不被其他管理層承認，這衝擊何等大）。可是，因為他在pixar的成功，他肯定了自己的成就。

Hindsight Bias 在日常生活中非常普遍。 比如坐的士，下車才方然大悟付多了錢。

你有別的例子嗎？